Tariffs contributed modestly to the rise of inflation last month, analysts told ABC News, citing the price hikes in product categories made up primarily of imports. But, they added, overall price increases owed largely to a rise in housing and food products with little connection to tariffs.

The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.

Expectations for widespread price hikes following a wave of new tariffs this year have largely fallen short, surprising economists and fueling claims from tariff defenders that the levies are having no impact on inflation.