IMF More Upbeat About US Growth Than Just Months Ago
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Recently, global investment bank UBS announced that, after crunching some “hard data” from between May and July 2025, there’s a 93% chance of the U.S. entering a recession this year [1].
Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey,
Global economic growth is projected to decelerate to 3.2% this year from 3.3% in 2024 and skid further to 3.1% in 2026, according to a new report from the IMF.
Dialing down uncertainty, reducing vulnerabilities, and investing in innovation, can help deliver durable economic gains
The modest predicted slowdown can be attributed to a muted shock from tariff announcements, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. But he warned of a downside risk from trade tensions that could result in a global output decrease of 0.